End of Habagat Declared: PAGASA Outlines What’s Next for the Philippines

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) has officially declared the end of the Habagat (southwest monsoon) season, marking the beginning of a transition in the country’s prevailing wind and weather patterns. In a press release, the agency explains that weakening of the southwest monsoon and the strengthening of a high-pressure area over the Asian continent are driving the change, and that the country will gradually shift toward Amihan (northeast monsoon) conditions in the coming days.

What the End of Habagat Means for the Country

PAGASA’s declaration of the end of the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) signals a major shift in the country’s weather patterns. The weakening of the southwest winds and the strengthening of the high-pressure area over the Asian continent indicate that the wet season is drawing to a close. The changes below show how this transition impacts various areas and daily conditions.

Decreasing Rainfall in Western and Central Areas

During Habagat, the western sections of Luzon and Visayas experience frequent rains due to moist winds from the southwest. Once the monsoon ends, these regions can expect fewer rain showers and more dry days.

Onset of Cooler, Drier Northeast Winds

The country begins to experience the transition toward the Amihan or northeast monsoon. This shift brings cooler air to northern and eastern Luzon and generally drier conditions across most regions.

Dry Conditions May Start Affecting Some Areas

As rainfall weakens, some provinces may begin to face dry spells. PAGASA noted that this may impact sectors such as agriculture, water supply, and energy production, particularly in areas that rely on regular rainfall.

Localized Rains May Continue in Eastern Parts

Eastern and windward areas, such as the Bicol Region and Quezon, could still experience light to moderate rains brought by easterlies or isolated thunderstorms even after Habagat’s termination.

Lower Risk of Widespread Flooding

With the southwest monsoon ending, the likelihood of large-scale flooding caused by prolonged rains also decreases. However, localized downpours and weather disturbances may still bring occasional heavy rainfall in certain provinces.

Areas That Will Feel the Change Most

Several regions across the Philippines will experience noticeable changes as the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) comes to an end. PAGASA noted that rainfall patterns and prevailing winds will gradually shift, affecting the country’s western and central zones first.

• Western Luzon (Ilocos, Zambales, Bataan, Pangasinan): These provinces will experience fewer rain showers as the southwest winds weaken, leading to drier days and clearer skies.
• Western Visayas (Aklan, Iloilo, Capiz, Negros Occidental): Areas in this region will see reduced rainfall compared to the heavy downpours that typically occur during the Habagat months.
• Central Luzon (Pampanga, Bulacan, Tarlac): Rainfall is expected to become less frequent, and weather conditions are anticipated to stabilize as the monsoon influence wanes.
• Palawan and Occidental Mindoro: Both provinces will gradually transition to more settled weather, with less moisture brought by the southwest winds.
• Southern Mindanao and Nearby Islands: While not heavily affected by Habagat, these areas may still experience occasional showers from lingering moisture or localized thunderstorms.

Transition Toward the Amihan Season

PAGASA explained that the end of the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) signals the gradual onset of the Northeast Monsoon (Amihan). The transition period is marked by changing wind directions, cooler air temperatures, and drier conditions in many parts of the country.

Winds come from the northeast and often bring cooler and less humid air to Luzon and parts of Visayas during the Amihan season. Thus, temperatures begin to drop, especially in northern and upland areas, while most of the western sections experience longer dry intervals. This seasonal shift also contributes to calmer seas and fewer weather disturbances over the western coast.

The eastern sections of the country, including the Cagayan Valley, Aurora, Bicol Region, and Eastern Visayas, may still experience light rain or cloudy weather due to the incoming northeast winds. Despite this, the overall pattern is generally calmer compared to the heavy rains associated with Habagat.

PAGASA reminded the public that isolated rain or thunderstorms may still develop, especially in eastern and coastal areas, during the transition toward the Amihan season.